Macro data is good, why did steel prices fall? Is there a lot of room for falling?
Today, the overall decline of Steel City is the main decline. Today’s highlights are mainly macro data and industrial data from January to February this year. However, after the data was introduced, the market rose first and then, unexpectedly. This can be defined as the previous favorable expectations, which is a normal rhythmic adjustment without panic.
Generally speaking, the overall performance of economic data from January to February, the trend of economic recovery has been determined. From the perspective of funds, long -term loans in RMB loans increased by 604.8 billion yuan year -on -year. Combined with each chain supplementary library, the manufacturing industry recovered in normal production status. In addition, consumption such as catering and tourism with a large impact on the epidemic is rebounding rapidly. From January to February, the zero-rate ratio increased by 3.5%, and it was out of the fourth quarter of the fourth quarter of last year.
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The data also has an unsatisfactory side. The recovery of production was unexpectedly weak, and the decline in automobiles expanded year -on -year. From January to February, the year-on-year increased increased by only 0.7%, and the growth rate slowed 2.3 percentage points compared to December of the previous year. The growth rate of power generation was significantly lower than the same period between 2022 and 2021. The recovery of the industrial field was still slow. The combination of cement output is still negative year -on -year, and the overall rising power is still insufficient.
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In terms of industrial data, steel production has exceeded expectations. From January to February, the production of iron was 14.426 million tons, an increase of 7.3%year-on-year. The output of crude steel was 16.87 million tons, a year -on -year increase of 5.6%. The output of steel was 206.23 million tons, an increase of 3.6%year -on -year. Almost all of the three major pieces have increased significantly, especially the growth rate of iron output has expanded, reflecting the rise of high -growth iron ore demand for iron elements, which is also the fundamental reason for the rising prices of ore. At present, the steel market still needs to pay attention to the balance of supply and demand. If the growth rate does not match, the market will still fluctuate.
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At present, the market has certain contradictions. This aspect is still actively pushing and optimistic about the market outlook. The uncoordinated between resource areas and the shortage of resources in some varieties of markets still exist. On the other hand, most manufacturers do not think that the market has a significant decline in the market. Based on demand and cost status, it is believed that the space for callback is limited. In the short term, the pressure facing Steel City is mainly the speed of demand release, and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike next week. However, the impact of expected interest rate hikes has been weakened by the Silicon Valley Bank incident, and the market does not have the conditions to fall sharply.
Post time: Mar-17-2023