The sound reduction of supply reduces the sound of the wind, and there is still a chance to rebound in the steel market

At present, due to a series of factors such as high inflation, tightening monetary policy, and tight geopolitical situations, the global economy still faces a large risk of downlink. But as far as China is concerned, China’s domestic economy is rising, domestic inflation has remained low. In the first quarter, monetary credit investment continued to exceed market expectations, released an active signal of the economy to accelerate the recovery. Consolidate the foundation of my country’s economic recovery and steady momentum.
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For the steel market, although the support for government credit in the first quarter is sufficient, and the front effect of the special debt is also obvious, the construction progress of major projects is still subject to capital in place, which restricts the release of the demand for construction steel for construction steel. Establishment. For the support of corporate credit, it is also stronger, and it also restricts the stamina released by the demand for manufacturing steel.
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In the short term, the domestic steel market will present the pattern of “the supply side maintains high volatility, the demand for release is insufficient, and the cost support is weakened”. From the perspective of the supply side, due to the fluctuation of steel prices, steel mills have faced the pressure of obvious losses, prompting the short -process steel mill to begin to generate a willingness to reduce production. The short -term supply side will show a small level of high fluctuations.
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From the perspective of demand, due to the restrictions on the release of downstream terminal demand, the short -term steel mills have a pursuit of recovery, and the rhythm of the destruction of social inventory is relatively slow. From the perspective of cost, iron ore prices show a high pressure decline, and the prices of coke and scrap steel also declined year -on -year, which also weakened cost support. The domestic steel market will show a shocking and bottom-up market this week (2023.4.17-4.21), and some areas and varieties may have a possibility of rebound.